Section 2 of your report

Fair Value Analysis

What is this property actually worth? Not what the agent says. Not what the seller wants. What the evidence shows.

Why asking prices are fiction

Sellers and their agents set asking prices based on what they want to achieve, not what the market will support. In a slow market, the gap between asking and fair value can be enormous.

Because asking prices reflect seller ambition rather than market evidence, there's often a meaningful gap between what a property is listed at and what comparable sales suggest it's worth. On a £400,000 home, even a 10% gap is £40,000 you could be overpaying — or saving, if you know the data.

The OfferHound approach

We calculate fair value from the bottom up: actual sold prices for comparable properties, adjusted for size, condition, and market timing. All evidence-based. All sourced. No gut feel.

Saltoun Road SW2 — Asking vs Sold

Comparable sales within 0.3mi, last 14 months

Target property
£650K asking
Dalberg Rd #14
£572K sold
Railton Rd #43
£598K sold
Saltoun Rd #67
£581K sold
Tulse Hill #22
£547K sold
Fair value: £580,000 Asking is 12.1% above
Methodology

How we calculate fair value

Five steps. All evidence-based. Fully explained in your report.

1

Find comparable sales

We pull all sold prices within 0.5 miles of the target property from the HM Land Registry Price Paid dataset — updated monthly and covering every transaction in England and Wales. We focus on the last 12 months and filter for the same property type.

2

Normalise by floor area

Bigger properties cost more. We retrieve the floor area of each comparable from the EPC Register and calculate price per square foot. We then multiply by the target property's floor area to get an apples-to-apples comparison.

3

Apply condition adjustments

A freshly renovated property is worth more than one needing significant work. We look at the EPC report narrative, listing photos (age of kitchen/bathrooms), and planning history to estimate a condition adjustment of ±5–15%.

4

Time-adjust for market drift

A sale from 11 months ago isn't the same as one from last week. We apply a monthly index adjustment using HMRC's residential property price index for the relevant postcode district, so every comparable is expressed in today's money.

5

Synthesise and give a range

We weight comparables by proximity, recency, and similarity, then calculate a fair value midpoint and a confidence range. The full workings appear in your report — you can see exactly how we got there.

Worked example

Saltoun Road SW2 — step by step

A 2-bedroom flat in Brixton asking £650,000. Here's exactly how we got to a fair value of £580,000.

Fair Value Derivation — Waterfall

Base comparable median (£591/sq ft × 1,020 sq ft) £603,000
Condition adjustment (dated kitchen vs comps) −£18,000
Leasehold remaining (78 yrs — extension needed) −£12,000
Service charge premium (£3,800/yr above avg) −£9,000
Time-on-market adj. (58 days, no reduction) −£8,000
Top-floor premium (natural light, no footfall above) +£24,000
Market direction (SW2 softening, Q4 2024) −£10,000
Fair Value (midpoint) £570,000
Range: £555,000–£585,000 (90% confidence). Asking is £65K–£95K above this range.

Sensitivity Analysis

How different assumptions shift the conclusion

Assumption Fair Value vs £650K
If flat fully modernised (EPC B, new kitchen) £612,000 −5.8%
◀ Base case £570,000 −12.3%
If lease extension costs £25K more than est. £545,000 −16.2%
If SW2 market softens a further 5% £540,000 −16.9%
Bear case (comps −10%, lease cost +£25K) £508,000 −21.8%

Recommended offer range

£552,000 – £570,000

Walk away above: £580,000

How floor area is established — EPC Register cross-check

Listing states

Not disclosed

EPC Register

1,020 sq ft

EPC lodged

Feb 2023

Certificate ref

EPC-4421-9087

Without the EPC floor area, agents can claim any size they like. We always cross-reference against the official EPC certificate — which is a legal document — to get the verified sq ft before computing £/sq ft comparables.

Live examples

What this looks like across three properties

Kenilworth · 5-bed

£3.25M asking price

£2,750,000
Fair value
Overpriced by18.2% / £500K
Recommended offer£2.65M–£2.75M

Saltoun Road SW2 · 2-bed flat

£650K asking price

£580,000
Fair value
Overpriced by12.1% / £70K
Recommended offer£565K–£580K

Birmingham B15 · 3-bed semi

£415K asking price

£345,000
Fair value
Overpriced by20.3% / £70K
Recommended offer£330K–£345K

Get the fair value for your property

Paste a Rightmove or Zoopla URL and we'll run this full analysis for you.

Get Your Report — £9.99